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301032.SZ$11.13-2.20%
Fair $11.13+0.0%

301032.SZ

Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$11.13

-0.25 (-2.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.13Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $41.5M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301032.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zhejiang Xinchai Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.7B

P/E

24.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.0x

↑

ROE

8.6%

↑

Gross Margin

11.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$11
$11$16

TradingView lightweight chart

301032.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.38Periodo -20.9%
Fair value: $11.13

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.6%

FCF CAGR

+3.4%

FCF margin

9.9%

FCF / Net income

2.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.33B · net income $107.3M · FCF $231.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.1%+2.3% pts

Operating margin

4.6%+4.6% pts

Net margin

4.6%+3.5% pts

FCF margin

9.9%-0.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.33B$2.33B$2.26B$2.32B$2.09B
Net Income$107.3M$107.3M$79.1M$32.0M$22.2M
EBITDA$179.2M$179.2M$147.3M$94.2M$83.9M
EPS0.440.440.330.130.09
Gross Margin11.1%11.1%9.8%7.9%8.8%
Operating Margin4.6%4.6%3.8%0.8%0.0%
Net Margin4.6%4.6%3.5%1.4%1.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.070.100.07
Current Ratio1.511.51———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$231.1M$231.1M$41.5M$-239.0M$209.2M
Returns
ROE8.6%8.6%6.8%2.9%2.1%
Valuation
P/E24.2024.2026.0376.2385.00
EV/EBITDA11.9811.9811.5921.9315.09
P/B2.162.161.762.221.76
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.1%3.1%-2.4%10.6%—
EPS Growth33.3%33.3%153.8%44.4%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

30.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.99

Spread vs growth

2.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

22.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.19

Spread vs growth

11.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.92

Spread vs growth

17.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -18.4%

Total return

-18.4%

Start / end P/E

41.9x → 25.3x

EPS bridge

0.33 → 0.44

Residual

-13.2%

EPS growth+33.3%
Multiple rerating-39.7%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.