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301048.SZ$9.63-2.92%
Fair $9.63+0.0%

301048.SZ

Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$9.63

-0.29 (-2.92%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.63Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $259.7M · quality 53.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301048.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

24.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.3x

↑

ROE

7.2%

↑

Gross Margin

16.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$10
$10$16

TradingView lightweight chart

301048.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.630Periodo -46.5%
Fair value: $9.630

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

8.1%

FCF / Net income

1.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.20B · net income $201.9M · FCF $259.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.9%-0.9% pts

Operating margin

9.5%-2.0% pts

Net margin

6.3%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

8.1%+11.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.20B$3.20B$3.18B$3.06B$3.26B
Net Income$201.9M$201.9M$190.6M$295.7M$302.2M
EBITDA$301.4M$301.4M$273.8M$388.4M$378.7M
EPS0.380.380.360.550.57
Gross Margin16.9%16.9%16.0%18.6%17.8%
Operating Margin9.5%9.5%9.6%12.7%11.4%
Net Margin6.3%6.3%6.0%9.7%9.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.100.110.12
Current Ratio1.731.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$259.7M$259.7M$128.0M$304.2M$-108.0M
Returns
ROE7.2%7.2%7.2%11.9%13.7%
Valuation
P/E24.0724.0723.6118.7615.42
EV/EBITDA14.3314.3314.3213.0811.81
P/B1.821.821.702.242.11
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.5%0.5%4.1%-6.2%—
EPS Growth5.6%5.6%-34.5%-3.5%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

31.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.85

Spread vs growth

-25.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

22.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.03

Spread vs growth

-16.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.67

Spread vs growth

-10.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -4.7%

Total return

-4.7%

Start / end P/E

28.3x → 25.3x

EPS bridge

0.36 → 0.38

Residual

-0.6%

EPS growth+5.6%
Multiple rerating-10.3%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.