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301062.SZ$6.74-3.58%
Fair $6.74+0.0%

301062.SZ

Shanghai Ailu Package Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShenzhen

$6.74

-0.25 (-3.58%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.74Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 18/F
F-Score: 3/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-258.7M · quality 53.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

18/100

F

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -9.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 301062.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Ailu Package Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.9B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-9.0%

↓

Gross Margin

18.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.65

↑
52-Week Range$7
$7$11

TradingView lightweight chart

301062.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.990Periodo -69.3%
Fair value: $6.740

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-10.3%

FCF / Net income

0.98x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.17B · net income $-122.7M · FCF $-120.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.5%-4.9% pts

Operating margin

0.5%-10.3% pts

Net margin

-10.4%-19.9% pts

FCF margin

-10.3%-8.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.17B$1.17B$1.19B$1.07B$1.12B
Net Income$-122.7M$-122.7M$53.3M$75.3M$106.3M
EBITDA$-11.9M$-11.9M$143.6M$162.5M$194.9M
EPS-0.28-0.280.130.190.27
Gross Margin18.5%18.5%21.6%23.5%23.5%
Operating Margin0.5%0.5%6.7%9.4%10.7%
Net Margin-10.4%-10.4%4.5%7.1%9.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.650.650.500.970.46
Current Ratio1.251.25———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-120.5M$-120.5M$-263.3M$-258.7M$-14.9M
Returns
ROE-9.0%-9.0%3.5%6.3%9.6%
Valuation
P/E——97.8555.6834.52
EV/EBITDA——40.4229.3320.29
P/B2.172.173.413.533.33
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.4%-1.4%11.6%-5.0%—
EPS Growth-315.4%-315.4%-31.6%-29.6%—
Dividend Yield1.3%1.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -18.6%

Total return

-18.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.13 → -0.28

Residual

-19.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.