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301281.SZ$40.92+1.89%
Fair $40.92+0.0%

301281.SZ

Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers - GeneralShenzhen

$40.92

+0.76 (+1.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $40.92Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-93.6M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 3/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 301281.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shandong Keyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.4B

P/E

194.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

62.1x

↑

ROE

1.2%

↑

Gross Margin

53.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$41
$26$54

TradingView lightweight chart

301281.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $40.92Periodo +47.8%
Fair value: $40.92

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-23.5%

FCF / Net income

-5.65x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $398.2M · net income $16.6M · FCF $-93.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

53.4%+12.5% pts

Operating margin

11.2%-11.1% pts

Net margin

4.2%-16.5% pts

FCF margin

-23.5%-42.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$398.2M$398.2M$463.7M$447.6M$442.9M
Net Income$16.6M$16.6M$60.4M$77.0M$91.3M
EBITDA$68.8M$68.8M$112.6M$114.6M$132.3M
EPS0.150.150.560.761.12
Gross Margin53.4%53.4%44.3%47.3%40.9%
Operating Margin11.2%11.2%13.3%14.7%22.3%
Net Margin4.2%4.2%13.0%17.2%20.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.03——
Current Ratio3.053.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-93.6M$-93.6M$-356.9M$-33.1M$84.8M
Returns
ROE1.2%1.2%4.4%5.8%17.6%
Valuation
P/E194.86194.8651.3043.92—
EV/EBITDA62.0862.0826.3626.68—
P/B3.333.332.282.54—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.1%-14.1%3.6%1.1%—
EPS Growth-73.2%-73.2%-26.3%-32.1%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

189.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.63

Spread vs growth

-262.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

96.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.39

Spread vs growth

-169.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

47.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.08

Spread vs growth

-120.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +20.6%

Total return

+20.6%

Start / end P/E

60.9x → 272.8x

EPS bridge

0.56 → 0.15

Residual

-254.9%

EPS growth-73.2%
Multiple rerating+348.1%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-254.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.