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301298.SZ$14.19-1.53%
Fair $14.19+0.0%

301298.SZ

Baoding Dongli Machinery Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$14.19

-0.22 (-1.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.19Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-107.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 2/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301298.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Baoding Dongli Machinery Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.1B

P/E

41.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.5x

↑

ROE

7.1%

↑

Gross Margin

29.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.26

↓
52-Week Range$14
$14$18

TradingView lightweight chart

301298.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.19Periodo -48.3%
Fair value: $14.19

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-16.5%

FCF / Net income

-1.58x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $647.1M · net income $67.6M · FCF $-107.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.9%+2.3% pts

Operating margin

12.1%+0.8% pts

Net margin

10.4%-0.6% pts

FCF margin

-16.5%-29.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$647.1M$647.1M$625.7M$570.2M$517.0M
Net Income$67.6M$67.6M$62.5M$85.7M$56.9M
EBITDA$140.2M$140.2M$110.7M$132.5M$98.8M
EPS0.460.460.430.580.43
Gross Margin29.9%29.9%29.5%25.5%27.6%
Operating Margin12.1%12.1%12.5%10.5%11.2%
Net Margin10.4%10.4%10.0%15.0%11.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.260.260.110.100.09
Current Ratio1.761.76———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-107.0M$-107.0M$-112.9M$-99.7M$66.7M
Returns
ROE7.1%7.1%6.9%9.4%6.7%
Valuation
P/E41.7441.7429.3128.6336.01
EV/EBITDA15.4715.4716.4918.1619.99
P/B2.182.182.012.682.41
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.4%3.4%9.7%10.3%—
EPS Growth7.3%7.3%-26.1%34.7%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

39.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.26

Spread vs growth

-32.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

26.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.52

Spread vs growth

-19.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.45

Spread vs growth

-10.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.7%

Total return

-12.7%

Start / end P/E

38.6x → 30.7x

EPS bridge

0.43 → 0.46

Residual

-1.5%

EPS growth+7.3%
Multiple rerating-20.6%
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.