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301381.SZ$18.83-2.23%
Fair $18.83+0.0%

301381.SZ

Sailvan Times Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Internet RetailShenzhen

$18.83

-0.43 (-2.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $18.83Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $524.6M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 37/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301381.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Sailvan Times Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.6B

P/E

27.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.7x

↑

ROE

10.3%

↑

Gross Margin

42.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.34

↓
52-Week Range$19
$18$26

TradingView lightweight chart

301381.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $18.83Periodo -57.2%
Fair value: $18.83

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+34.0%

FCF CAGR

+43.7%

FCF margin

9.6%

FCF / Net income

4.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $11.82B · net income $283.0M · FCF $1.13B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

42.7%-2.1% pts

Operating margin

4.6%-1.1% pts

Net margin

2.4%-1.4% pts

FCF margin

9.6%+1.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$11.82B$11.82B$10.28B$6.56B$4.91B
Net Income$283.0M$283.0M$214.1M$335.5M$184.8M
EBITDA$588.5M$588.5M$401.3M$508.1M$443.9M
EPS0.700.700.540.890.51
Gross Margin42.7%42.7%43.8%45.8%44.8%
Operating Margin4.6%4.6%2.7%6.7%5.7%
Net Margin2.4%2.4%2.1%5.1%3.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.340.340.550.220.35
Current Ratio2.622.62———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.13B$1.13B$-561.4M$524.6M$382.1M
Returns
ROE10.3%10.3%8.7%13.9%12.7%
Valuation
P/E27.2927.2939.5832.50—
EV/EBITDA12.6612.6622.1621.03—
P/B2.792.793.444.52—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth15.0%15.0%56.5%33.7%—
EPS Growth30.2%30.2%-39.9%73.6%—
Dividend Yield2.6%2.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

33.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.67

Spread vs growth

-3.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

23.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.02

Spread vs growth

6.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.26

Spread vs growth

13.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.5%

Total return

-10.5%

Start / end P/E

40.5x → 27.0x

EPS bridge

0.54 → 0.70

Residual

-10.0%

EPS growth+30.2%
Multiple rerating-33.3%
Dividend+2.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.