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301456.SZ$28.53-2.03%
Fair $28.53+0.0%

301456.SZ

Qingdao Paguld Intelligent Manufacturing Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$28.53

-0.59 (-2.03%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $28.53Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-82.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 301456.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Qingdao Paguld Intelligent Manufacturing Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

49.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

31.3x

↑

ROE

3.7%

↓

Gross Margin

36.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$29
$23$38

TradingView lightweight chart

301456.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $29.12Periodo -42.3%
Fair value: $28.53

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+23.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-12.8%

FCF / Net income

-0.98x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $643.1M · net income $83.4M · FCF $-82.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.8%-13.4% pts

Operating margin

13.0%-21.1% pts

Net margin

13.0%-18.6% pts

FCF margin

-12.8%-50.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$643.1M$643.1M$481.5M$409.3M$343.4M
Net Income$83.4M$83.4M$62.6M$110.7M$108.2M
EBITDA$132.1M$132.1M$92.8M$145.2M$137.1M
EPS0.550.550.420.870.97
Gross Margin36.8%36.8%37.1%44.4%50.2%
Operating Margin13.0%13.0%9.6%28.5%34.1%
Net Margin13.0%13.0%13.0%27.1%31.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.000.000.00
Current Ratio7.747.74———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-82.0M$-82.0M$-128.4M$-13.5M$130.1M
Returns
ROE3.7%3.7%2.9%5.4%15.7%
Valuation
P/E49.1949.1950.3335.57—
EV/EBITDA31.3331.3331.8426.53—
P/B1.941.941.481.90—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth33.6%33.6%17.6%19.2%—
EPS Growth31.0%31.0%-51.7%-10.3%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

66.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.53

Spread vs growth

-35.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

41.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.06

Spread vs growth

-10.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.93

Spread vs growth

6.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +20.1%

Total return

+20.1%

Start / end P/E

57.1x → 51.9x

EPS bridge

0.42 → 0.55

Residual

-2.8%

EPS growth+31.0%
Multiple rerating-9.2%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.