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301469.SZ$33.00-3.79%
Fair $33.00+0.0%

301469.SZ

Zhejiang Hengda New Material Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShenzhen

$33.00

-1.30 (-3.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $33.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-51.7M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301469.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zhejiang Hengda New Material Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.0B

P/E

32.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.0x

↑

ROE

5.7%

↑

Gross Margin

15.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.12

↓
52-Week Range$33
$25$43

TradingView lightweight chart

301469.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $34.30Periodo -45.1%
Fair value: $33.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.15B · net income $80.3M · FCF $-51.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.2%-3.7% pts

Operating margin

8.0%-4.3% pts

Net margin

7.0%-3.2% pts

FCF margin

-4.5%-12.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.15B$1.15B$1.01B$868.7M$953.2M
Net Income$80.3M$80.3M$68.5M$87.6M$97.5M
EBITDA$144.6M$144.6M$116.1M$131.5M$148.3M
EPS0.900.900.771.181.45
Gross Margin15.2%15.2%14.3%18.3%18.9%
Operating Margin8.0%8.0%7.0%12.0%12.3%
Net Margin7.0%7.0%6.8%10.1%10.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.120.120.110.130.29
Current Ratio4.534.53———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-51.7M$-51.7M$139.1M$-390.7M$73.7M
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%5.0%6.4%17.0%
Valuation
P/E32.0432.0428.8229.86—
EV/EBITDA19.9619.9616.0917.55—
P/B2.112.111.451.92—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.2%14.2%16.0%-8.9%—
EPS Growth16.9%16.9%-34.7%-18.6%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

48.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.93

Spread vs growth

-31.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.54

Spread vs growth

-14.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.71

Spread vs growth

-3.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +26.8%

Total return

+26.8%

Start / end P/E

34.1x → 36.7x

EPS bridge

0.77 → 0.90

Residual

+1.3%

EPS growth+16.9%
Multiple rerating+7.6%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.