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301539.SZ$16.10-2.10%
Fair $16.10+0.0%

301539.SZ

Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShenzhen

$16.10

-0.34 (-2.10%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16.10Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 1/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-158.8M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 5/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 301539.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.4B

P/E

791.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

31.0x

↑

ROE

3.4%

↓

Gross Margin

11.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.56

↑
52-Week Range$16
$15$23

TradingView lightweight chart

301539.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.83Periodo -56.0%
Fair value: $16.10

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-36.9%

FCF / Net income

-14.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.07B · net income $27.6M · FCF $-395.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.8%-2.7% pts

Operating margin

3.3%-4.7% pts

Net margin

2.6%-5.0% pts

FCF margin

-36.9%-41.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.07B$1.07B$1.03B$961.6M$956.4M
Net Income$27.6M$27.6M$50.1M$72.9M$72.5M
EBITDA$86.2M$86.2M$101.7M$128.4M$139.5M
EPS0.190.190.370.660.65
Gross Margin11.8%11.8%14.9%16.6%14.5%
Operating Margin3.3%3.3%5.3%9.2%8.0%
Net Margin2.6%2.6%4.9%7.6%7.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.560.560.200.250.31
Current Ratio0.900.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-395.8M$-395.8M$-158.8M$47.8M$41.5M
Returns
ROE3.4%3.4%6.5%16.4%19.6%
Valuation
P/E791.50791.5046.51——
EV/EBITDA31.0431.0422.43——
P/B2.862.863.00——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.3%4.3%6.9%0.5%—
EPS Growth-48.6%-48.6%-43.9%1.5%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

95.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.43

Spread vs growth

-144.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

55.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.73

Spread vs growth

-104.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

30.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.78

Spread vs growth

-79.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -17.1%

Total return

-17.1%

Start / end P/E

52.0x → 83.3x

EPS bridge

0.37 → 0.19

Residual

-29.3%

EPS growth-48.6%
Multiple rerating+60.2%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-29.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.