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301596.SZ$72.30-1.12%
Fair $72.30+0.0%

301596.SZ

Reach Machinery Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShenzhen

$72.30

-0.82 (-1.12%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $72.30Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $58.8M · quality 79.7/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301596.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Reach Machinery Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.6B

P/E

46.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

29.3x

↑

ROE

12.0%

↑

Gross Margin

30.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$72
$62$100

TradingView lightweight chart

301596.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $73.12Periodo +47.5%
Fair value: $72.30

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.2%

FCF CAGR

-6.9%

FCF margin

9.1%

FCF / Net income

0.56x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $646.1M · net income $104.9M · FCF $58.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.6%+2.2% pts

Operating margin

17.6%+1.4% pts

Net margin

16.2%+3.5% pts

FCF margin

9.1%-3.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$646.1M$646.1M$615.9M$585.2M$587.1M
Net Income$104.9M$104.9M$100.9M$96.6M$74.9M
EBITDA$154.7M$154.7M$145.7M$147.2M$124.0M
EPS1.591.591.531.671.29
Gross Margin30.6%30.6%31.7%32.8%28.4%
Operating Margin17.6%17.6%19.4%19.9%16.1%
Net Margin16.2%16.2%16.4%16.5%12.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.090.150.35
Current Ratio3.823.82———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$58.8M$58.8M$58.5M$75.7M$72.9M
Returns
ROE12.0%12.0%12.1%22.5%22.6%
Valuation
P/E46.9546.9542.33——
EV/EBITDA29.2629.2628.44——
P/B5.475.475.14——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.9%4.9%5.2%-0.3%—
EPS Growth4.0%4.0%-8.6%29.0%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

59.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.42

Spread vs growth

-55.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

37.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.76

Spread vs growth

-33.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$12.50

Spread vs growth

-18.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.9%

Total return

-19.9%

Start / end P/E

60.0x → 45.6x

EPS bridge

1.53 → 1.59

Residual

-1.0%

EPS growth+4.0%
Multiple rerating-24.0%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.