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301636.SZ$50.84-2.87%
Fair $50.84+0.0%

301636.SZ

Zerun Co., Ltd

Industrials / Electrical Equipment & PartsShenzhen

$50.84

-1.50 (-2.87%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $50.84Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 1/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-36.8M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 301636.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zerun Co., Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.3B

P/E

87.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

40.5x

↑

ROE

3.1%

↓

Gross Margin

15.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.27

↓
52-Week Range$51
$48$114

TradingView lightweight chart

301636.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $52.34Periodo -20.6%
Fair value: $50.84

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-16.7%

FCF / Net income

-4.17x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $830.0M · net income $33.2M · FCF $-138.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.9%-11.0% pts

Operating margin

6.6%-11.2% pts

Net margin

4.0%-12.6% pts

FCF margin

-16.7%-16.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$830.0M$830.0M$875.9M$844.3M$521.9M
Net Income$33.2M$33.2M$131.3M$120.1M$86.4M
EBITDA$66.7M$66.7M$174.4M$147.9M$107.6M
EPS0.580.582.742.512.03
Gross Margin15.9%15.9%24.1%100.0%26.8%
Operating Margin6.6%6.6%15.0%100.0%17.7%
Net Margin4.0%4.0%15.0%14.2%16.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.270.270.08—0.13
Current Ratio2.212.21———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-138.5M$-138.5M$-36.8M$181.4M$1.2M
Returns
ROE3.1%3.1%22.3%—27.2%
Valuation
P/E87.6687.66———
EV/EBITDA40.4640.46———
P/B2.742.74———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.2%-5.2%3.7%61.8%—
EPS Growth-78.8%-78.8%9.2%23.6%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

98.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.51

Spread vs growth

-177.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

56.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.46

Spread vs growth

-135.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

31.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$8.79

Spread vs growth

-110.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.9%

Total return

-10.9%

Start / end P/E

21.1x → 87.7x

EPS bridge

2.74 → 0.58

Residual

-249.3%

EPS growth-78.8%
Multiple rerating+316.2%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-249.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.