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3028.T$2004.00-0.55%
Fair $2004.00+0.0%

3028.T

Alpen Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailTokyo

$2004.00

-11.00 (-0.55%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2004.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 8/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-394.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 4.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3028.TLocal privado en este navegador · Alpen Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$75.1B

P/E

16.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

4.6%

↓

Gross Margin

40.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.10

↓
52-Week Range$2004
$1851$2507

TradingView lightweight chart

3028.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,004Periodo -50.0%
Fair value: $2,004

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.7%

FCF / Net income

0.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $268.65B · net income $5.57B · FCF $1.88B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

40.0%+0.2% pts

Operating margin

3.2%+0.1% pts

Net margin

2.1%-0.2% pts

FCF margin

0.7%+4.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$268.65B$268.65B$252.94B$244.54B$232.33B
Net Income$5.57B$5.57B$1.73B$5.47B$5.31B
EBITDA$14.40B$14.40B$8.52B$10.64B$14.00B
EPS144.61144.6144.99141.48135.69
Gross Margin40.0%40.0%38.8%38.5%39.8%
Operating Margin3.2%3.2%1.3%2.1%3.1%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%0.7%2.2%2.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.100.100.120.050.11
Current Ratio1.511.51———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.88B$1.88B$-3.85B$-394.0M$-9.18B
Returns
ROE4.6%4.6%1.5%4.7%4.8%
Valuation
P/E16.6616.6645.0813.9015.50
EV/EBITDA5.135.138.656.014.71
P/B0.640.640.670.660.74
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.2%6.2%3.4%5.3%—
EPS Growth221.4%221.4%-68.2%4.3%—
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

7.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$177.82

Spread vs growth

214.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$215.16

Spread vs growth

213.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$346.52

Spread vs growth

212.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.9%

Total return

-10.9%

Start / end P/E

51.4x → 13.9x

EPS bridge

44.99 → 144.61

Residual

-161.8%

EPS growth+221.4%
Multiple rerating-73.1%
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-161.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.