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3154.T$830.00+0.12%
Fair $830.00+0.0%

3154.T

Medius Holdings Co., Ltd.

Healthcare / Medical Instruments & SuppliesTokyo

$830.00

+1.00 (+0.12%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $830.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $300.7M · quality 37.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3154.TLocal privado en este navegador · Medius Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$18.5B

P/E

13.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.3x

↓

ROE

6.7%

↑

Gross Margin

11.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.04

↑
52-Week Range$830
$775$1002

TradingView lightweight chart

3154.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $830.00Periodo +470.2%
Fair value: $830.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.7%

FCF / Net income

3.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $288.69B · net income $1.38B · FCF $4.95B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.9%-0.2% pts

Operating margin

0.6%-0.4% pts

Net margin

0.5%-0.3% pts

FCF margin

1.7%+5.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$288.69B$288.69B$259.79B$239.05B$226.61B
Net Income$1.38B$1.38B$1.12B$1.50B$1.87B
EBITDA$4.77B$4.77B$3.86B$4.27B$3.80B
EPS61.8561.8551.0068.0985.15
Gross Margin11.9%11.9%12.0%12.3%12.1%
Operating Margin0.6%0.6%0.5%0.8%1.0%
Net Margin0.5%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.041.041.221.051.03
Current Ratio1.091.09———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.95B$4.95B$261.1M$300.7M$-8.49B
Returns
ROE6.7%6.7%5.7%8.1%10.8%
Valuation
P/E13.6213.6217.4711.5711.29
EV/EBITDA5.325.327.786.227.84
P/B0.900.900.990.931.22
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.1%11.1%8.7%5.5%—
EPS Growth21.3%21.3%-25.1%-20.0%—
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$73.65

Spread vs growth

15.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$89.11

Spread vs growth

13.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$143.52

Spread vs growth

12.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -11.8%

Total return

-11.8%

Start / end P/E

19.0x → 13.4x

EPS bridge

51.00 → 61.85

Residual

-6.2%

EPS growth+21.3%
Multiple rerating-29.2%
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.