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3178.T$1058.00+0.57%
Fair $1058.00+0.0%

3178.T

Chimney Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsTokyo

$1058.00

+6.00 (+0.57%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1058.00Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.0B · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 63/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3178.TLocal privado en este navegador · Chimney Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$20.4B

P/E

40.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.4x

↑

ROE

17.7%

↑

Gross Margin

68.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.03

↑
52-Week Range$1058
$1050$1380

TradingView lightweight chart

3178.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,058Periodo +12.2%
Fair value: $1,058

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+37.4%

FCF CAGR

-25.9%

FCF margin

2.9%

FCF / Net income

0.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $26.22B · net income $1.08B · FCF $769.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

68.7%-0.8% pts

Operating margin

3.5%+48.9% pts

Net margin

4.1%-8.0% pts

FCF margin

2.9%-15.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$26.22B$26.22B$25.73B$20.16B$10.11B
Net Income$1.08B$1.08B$938.8M$-2.02B$1.23B
EBITDA$1.50B$1.50B$1.61B$-1.09B$2.07B
EPS55.7955.7948.66-104.5263.60
Gross Margin68.7%68.7%69.3%67.7%69.5%
Operating Margin3.5%3.5%5.1%-8.3%-45.3%
Net Margin4.1%4.1%3.6%-10.0%12.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.031.031.462.221.92
Current Ratio1.131.13———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$769.4M$769.4M$2.78B$1.01B$1.89B
Returns
ROE17.7%17.7%18.6%-47.7%18.9%
Valuation
P/E40.4040.4027.81—17.66
EV/EBITDA13.3713.3715.91—11.65
P/B3.363.365.165.413.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.9%1.9%27.6%99.4%—
EPS Growth14.7%14.7%146.6%-264.3%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

18.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$93.88

Spread vs growth

-4.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

15.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$113.59

Spread vs growth

-0.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$182.95

Spread vs growth

2.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.8%

Total return

-12.8%

Start / end P/E

25.1x → 19.0x

EPS bridge

48.66 → 55.79

Residual

-3.6%

EPS growth+14.7%
Multiple rerating-24.4%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.