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3196.T$1587.00-0.81%
Fair $1587.00+0.0%

3196.T

HOTLAND HOLDINGS Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsTokyo

$1587.00

-13.00 (-0.81%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1587.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $709.7M · quality 40.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3196.TLocal privado en este navegador · HOTLAND HOLDINGS Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$41.2B

P/E

84.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.3x

↑

ROE

3.6%

↓

Gross Margin

56.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.04

↑
52-Week Range$1587
$1560$2160

TradingView lightweight chart

3196.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,587Periodo +45.6%
Fair value: $1,587

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.7%

FCF / Net income

-3.44x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $51.04B · net income $405.4M · FCF $-1.40B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

56.1%-1.6% pts

Operating margin

3.5%-1.9% pts

Net margin

0.8%-3.4% pts

FCF margin

-2.7%-6.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$51.04B$51.04B$46.13B$38.71B$32.16B
Net Income$405.4M$405.4M$1.85B$1.02B$1.36B
EBITDA$3.32B$3.32B$4.28B$3.10B$3.29B
EPS——87.0147.2162.94
Gross Margin56.1%56.1%56.1%57.3%57.7%
Operating Margin3.5%3.5%5.5%5.8%5.4%
Net Margin0.8%0.8%4.0%2.6%4.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.041.040.640.600.51
Current Ratio1.221.22———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.40B$-1.40B$1.08B$709.7M$1.23B
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%15.6%9.9%13.3%
Valuation
P/E84.0184.0124.6439.2322.94
EV/EBITDA12.2712.2711.5513.9910.06
P/B2.982.983.853.893.06
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.7%10.7%19.2%20.4%—
EPS Growth——84.3%-25.0%—
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -22.9%

Total return

-22.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

87.01 → n/d

Residual

-23.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.