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3560.T$4080.00-1.09%
Fair $4080.00+0.0%

3560.T

Hobonichi Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailTokyo

$4080.00

-45.00 (-1.09%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4080.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 61/B
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-37.7M · quality 45.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

61/100

B

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3560.TLocal privado en este navegador · Hobonichi Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.5B

P/E

10.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.6x

↑

ROE

9.2%

↑

Gross Margin

57.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$4080
$3000$4420

TradingView lightweight chart

3560.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4,080Periodo -18.7%
Fair value: $4,080

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.49x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.68B · net income $448.4M · FCF $-218.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

57.0%+1.4% pts

Operating margin

7.1%+2.4% pts

Net margin

5.2%+1.7% pts

FCF margin

-2.5%-3.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.68B$8.68B$7.53B$6.82B$5.91B
Net Income$448.4M$448.4M$399.2M$411.9M$205.7M
EBITDA$912.6M$912.6M$747.0M$760.7M$428.4M
EPS193.14193.14171.99177.4888.63
Gross Margin57.0%57.0%56.7%56.9%55.6%
Operating Margin7.1%7.1%7.3%8.6%4.7%
Net Margin5.2%5.2%5.3%6.0%3.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio3.943.94———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-218.9M$-218.9M$20.5M$-37.7M$50.2M
Returns
ROE9.2%9.2%8.8%9.8%5.3%
Valuation
P/E10.2210.2219.0719.9238.64
EV/EBITDA9.569.568.608.9914.80
P/B1.941.941.681.952.06
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth15.2%15.2%10.5%15.4%—
EPS Growth12.3%12.3%-3.1%100.2%—
Dividend Yield2.2%2.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

23.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$362.03

Spread vs growth

-11.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$438.06

Spread vs growth

-5.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$705.50

Spread vs growth

-1.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +36.0%

Total return

+36.0%

Start / end P/E

17.7x → 21.1x

EPS bridge

171.99 → 193.14

Residual

+2.4%

EPS growth+12.3%
Multiple rerating+19.1%
Dividend+2.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+2.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.