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3561.T$1435.00-2.89%
Fair $1435.00+0.0%

3561.T

Chikaranomoto Holdings Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsTokyo

$1435.00

-43.00 (-2.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1435.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.0B · quality 79.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 77/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3561.TLocal privado en este navegador · Chikaranomoto Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$43.2B

P/E

23.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.8x

↑

ROE

16.5%

↑

Gross Margin

70.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.24

↓
52-Week Range$1435
$1313$1587

TradingView lightweight chart

3561.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,443Periodo +9.7%
Fair value: $1,435

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+20.8%

FCF CAGR

+31.0%

FCF margin

5.3%

FCF / Net income

1.02x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $34.17B · net income $1.76B · FCF $1.80B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

70.2%-0.6% pts

Operating margin

8.2%+2.8% pts

Net margin

5.1%+0.4% pts

FCF margin

5.3%+1.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$34.17B$34.17B$31.78B$26.12B$19.40B
Net Income$1.76B$1.76B$2.19B$1.63B$923.7M
EBITDA$3.59B$3.59B$4.01B$2.83B$1.87B
EPS58.3258.3272.4456.52—
Gross Margin70.2%70.2%70.5%70.3%70.8%
Operating Margin8.2%8.2%10.4%8.7%5.4%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%6.9%6.2%4.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.240.240.290.711.94
Current Ratio1.961.96———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.80B$1.80B$2.74B$1.99B$799.6M
Returns
ROE16.5%16.5%23.6%21.3%24.3%
Valuation
P/E23.6223.6222.5826.11—
EV/EBITDA10.7710.7711.5314.589.39
P/B4.064.065.335.573.94
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.5%7.5%21.7%34.6%—
EPS Growth-19.5%-19.5%28.2%——
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

29.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$127.33

Spread vs growth

-49.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

21.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$154.07

Spread vs growth

-40.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$248.13

Spread vs growth

-35.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.5%

Total return

+7.5%

Start / end P/E

18.8x → 24.7x

EPS bridge

72.44 → 58.32

Residual

-6.1%

EPS growth-19.5%
Multiple rerating+31.4%
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.