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v0.1
3639.T$231.00-0.86%
Fair $231.00+0.0%

3639.T

Voltage Incorporation

Communication Services / Electronic Gaming & MultimediaTokyo

$231.00

-2.00 (-0.86%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $231.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-181.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3639.TLocal privado en este navegador · Voltage Incorporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.5B

P/E

281.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.7x

↓

ROE

0.2%

↓

Gross Margin

53.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$231
$221$418

TradingView lightweight chart

3639.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $231.00Periodo -79.1%
Fair value: $231.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-20.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-12.1%

FCF / Net income

-79.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.46B · net income $5.3M · FCF $-418.0M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

53.0%-12.6% pts

Operating margin

-2.7%-5.0% pts

Net margin

0.2%-2.2% pts

FCF margin

-12.1%-14.4% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$3.46B$3.46B$4.26B$5.39B$6.90B
Net Income$5.3M$5.3M$-39.2M$-412.2M$163.2M
EBITDA$51.4M$51.4M$2.7M$-363.1M$200.4M
EPS0.820.82-6.10-64.1825.47
Gross Margin53.0%53.0%57.3%58.4%65.6%
Operating Margin-2.7%-2.7%-2.0%-6.7%2.3%
Net Margin0.2%0.2%-0.9%-7.6%2.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.060.070.06
Current Ratio3.733.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-418.0M$-418.0M$71.0M$-181.0M$157.9M
Returns
ROE0.2%0.2%-1.8%-18.8%6.2%
Valuation
P/E281.71281.71——18.85
EV/EBITDA5.745.74304.44—6.94
P/B0.680.680.981.001.17
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-18.8%-18.8%-21.0%-21.9%—
EPS Growth113.4%113.4%90.5%-352.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

192.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$20.50

Spread vs growth

-78.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

97.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$24.80

Spread vs growth

15.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

47.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$39.94

Spread vs growth

66.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.3%

Total return

-5.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-6.10 → 0.82

Residual

-5.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-5.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.