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3641.T$920.00-1.08%
Fair $920.00+0.0%

3641.T

Papyless Co., Ltd.

Communication Services / PublishingTokyo

$920.00

-10.00 (-1.08%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $920.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 16/F
F-Score: 1/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-576.0M · quality 39.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

16/100

F

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -1.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3641.TLocal privado en este navegador · Papyless Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.0B

P/E

78.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-1.8%

↓

Gross Margin

47.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$920
$863$1121

TradingView lightweight chart

3641.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $920.00Periodo +18.5%
Fair value: $920.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-8.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.7%

FCF / Net income

3.51x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $15.77B · net income $-164.0M · FCF $-576.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

47.9%-0.8% pts

Operating margin

-2.0%-6.6% pts

Net margin

-1.0%-4.7% pts

FCF margin

-3.7%-3.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$15.77B$15.77B$17.18B$18.63B$20.70B
Net Income$-164.0M$-164.0M$217.0M$657.0M$751.0M
EBITDA$-300.0M$-300.0M$263.0M$433.0M$966.0M
EPS-16.95-16.9521.9171.4977.84
Gross Margin47.9%47.9%48.1%47.0%48.7%
Operating Margin-2.0%-2.0%1.5%2.3%4.6%
Net Margin-1.0%-1.0%1.3%3.5%3.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity——0.000.00—
Current Ratio2.872.87———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-576.0M$-576.0M$687.0M$-614.0M$-101.0M
Returns
ROE-1.8%-1.8%2.1%7.0%8.6%
Valuation
P/E78.1078.1041.2613.0917.33
EV/EBITDA——-11.21-3.762.32
P/B1.001.000.870.921.49
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.2%-8.2%-7.8%-10.0%—
EPS Growth-177.4%-177.4%-69.4%-8.2%—
Dividend Yield2.2%2.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.3%

Total return

+7.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

21.91 → -16.95

Residual

+5.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+5.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.