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3653.T$662.00-1.63%
Fair $662.00+0.0%

3653.T

Morpho, Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$662.00

-11.00 (-1.63%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $662.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-226.1M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -2.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3653.TLocal privado en este navegador · Morpho, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.4B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

5.9x

↓

ROE

-2.1%

↓

Gross Margin

54.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$662
$609$1337

TradingView lightweight chart

3653.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $662.00Periodo -61.7%
Fair value: $662.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+18.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.7%

FCF / Net income

2.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.36B · net income $-77.6M · FCF $-226.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

54.9%+7.2% pts

Operating margin

1.4%+30.8% pts

Net margin

-2.3%+31.2% pts

FCF margin

-6.7%+17.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.36B$3.36B$3.30B$2.38B$2.00B
Net Income$-77.6M$-77.6M$301.5M$-300.2M$-668.4M
EBITDA$159.1M$159.1M$326.9M$-226.6M$-473.4M
EPS——58.60-58.53-130.04
Gross Margin54.9%54.9%57.6%56.9%47.7%
Operating Margin1.4%1.4%7.8%-10.3%-29.5%
Net Margin-2.3%-2.3%9.1%-12.6%-33.5%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio6.386.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-226.1M$-226.1M$65.7M$-365.2M$-477.8M
Returns
ROE-2.1%-2.1%8.3%-9.5%-19.7%
Valuation
P/E——28.67——
EV/EBITDA5.935.9317.46——
P/B0.960.962.371.921.37
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.8%1.8%38.5%19.3%—
EPS Growth——200.1%55.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -42.5%

Total return

-42.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

58.60 → n/d

Residual

-42.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-42.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.