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3696.T$1885.00+2.89%
Fair $1885.00+0.0%

3696.T

Ceres Inc.

Industrials / ConglomeratesTokyo

$1885.00

+53.00 (+2.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1885.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 67/B
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $557.5M · quality 37.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

67/100

B

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3696.TLocal privado en este navegador · Ceres Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$22.1B

P/E

8.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.5x

↓

ROE

18.8%

↑

Gross Margin

43.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.71

↑
52-Week Range$1885
$1393$2850

TradingView lightweight chart

3696.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,885Periodo +39.3%
Fair value: $1,885

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.0%

FCF / Net income

0.47x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $29.66B · net income $2.50B · FCF $1.18B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

43.9%+4.6% pts

Operating margin

7.9%+1.8% pts

Net margin

8.4%+8.2% pts

FCF margin

4.0%+5.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$29.66B$29.66B$27.71B$24.07B$20.54B
Net Income$2.50B$2.50B$1.48B$451.1M$46.6M
EBITDA$5.18B$5.18B$2.88B$1.33B$1.12B
EPS216.61216.61128.9639.574.11
Gross Margin43.9%43.9%48.1%44.0%39.3%
Operating Margin7.9%7.9%8.0%4.6%6.1%
Net Margin8.4%8.4%5.3%1.9%0.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.710.710.850.800.66
Current Ratio2.382.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.18B$1.18B$104.5M$557.5M$-314.2M
Returns
ROE18.8%18.8%13.3%4.9%0.5%
Valuation
P/E8.718.7124.0828.96227.49
EV/EBITDA3.493.4911.669.248.91
P/B1.631.633.201.421.19
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.1%7.1%15.1%17.2%—
EPS Growth68.0%68.0%225.9%862.8%—
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-8.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$167.26

Spread vs growth

76.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-1.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$202.39

Spread vs growth

69.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

4.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$325.95

Spread vs growth

63.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1.9%

Total return

+1.9%

Start / end P/E

14.8x → 8.7x

EPS bridge

128.96 → 216.61

Residual

-28.1%

EPS growth+68.0%
Multiple rerating-41.3%
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-28.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.