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3738.HK$3.49+14.80%
Fair $3.49+0.0%

3738.HK

Vobile Group Limited

Technology / Software - ApplicationHKSE

$3.49

+0.45 (+14.80%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.49Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-220.8M · quality 54.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3738.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Vobile Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.9B

P/E

43.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.5x

↑

ROE

6.2%

↑

Gross Margin

44.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.63

↑
52-Week Range$3
$3$7

TradingView lightweight chart

3738.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.040Periodo +292.3%
Fair value: $3.490

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+25.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-18.9%

FCF / Net income

-2.72x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.87B · net income $199.3M · FCF $-542.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

44.8%+3.8% pts

Operating margin

12.3%+1.4% pts

Net margin

6.9%+4.0% pts

FCF margin

-18.9%-14.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.87B$2.87B$2.40B$2.00B$1.44B
Net Income$199.3M$199.3M$142.7M$-7.8M$42.0M
EBITDA$510.9M$510.9M$413.4M$275.1M$271.5M
EPS0.080.080.06-0.000.02
Gross Margin44.8%44.8%43.8%42.5%40.9%
Operating Margin12.3%12.3%11.8%7.5%10.9%
Net Margin6.9%6.9%5.9%-0.4%2.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.630.630.490.360.75
Current Ratio1.221.22———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-542.5M$-542.5M$-220.8M$-99.2M$-67.5M
Returns
ROE6.2%6.2%6.8%-0.4%2.8%
Valuation
P/E43.6343.6359.35—199.49
EV/EBITDA20.4620.4623.0922.1237.00
P/B2.972.974.172.886.13
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth19.6%19.6%20.0%38.7%—
EPS Growth31.8%31.8%1780.0%-117.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

58.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.31

Spread vs growth

-26.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

37.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.37

Spread vs growth

-5.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.60

Spread vs growth

9.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -16.3%

Total return

-16.3%

Start / end P/E

70.9x → 45.0x

EPS bridge

0.06 → 0.08

Residual

-11.6%

EPS growth+31.8%
Multiple rerating-36.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-11.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.