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3758.T$229.00-0.86%
Fair $229.00+0.0%

3758.T

Aeria Inc.

Communication Services / Electronic Gaming & MultimediaTokyo

$229.00

-2.00 (-0.86%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $229.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-788.0M · quality 53.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 4.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3758.TLocal privado en este navegador · Aeria Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.6B

P/E

13.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.2x

↓

ROE

4.1%

↓

Gross Margin

36.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.89

↑
52-Week Range$229
$229$400

TradingView lightweight chart

3758.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $230.00Periodo -78.0%
Fair value: $229.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.8%

FCF / Net income

-2.24x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $16.47B · net income $352.0M · FCF $-788.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.9%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

4.0%-0.0% pts

Net margin

2.1%+1.3% pts

FCF margin

-4.8%+1.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$16.47B$16.47B$19.16B$22.67B$20.59B
Net Income$352.0M$352.0M$-739.0M$480.0M$172.0M
EBITDA$829.0M$829.0M$-60.0M$1.04B$1.05B
EPS16.9116.91—21.607.81
Gross Margin36.9%36.9%32.3%29.7%35.1%
Operating Margin4.0%4.0%-0.2%2.1%4.1%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%-3.9%2.1%0.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.890.890.890.740.63
Current Ratio1.941.94———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-788.0M$-788.0M$-433.0M$-2.08B$-1.33B
Returns
ROE4.1%4.1%-8.8%5.0%1.9%
Valuation
P/E13.5513.55—13.9847.12
EV/EBITDA5.175.17—4.784.27
P/B0.560.560.660.700.89
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.0%-14.0%-15.5%10.1%—
EPS Growth———176.6%—
Dividend Yield2.2%2.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$20.32

Spread vs growth

-20.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$24.59

Spread vs growth

-21.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$39.60

Spread vs growth

-22.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -8.7%

Total return

-8.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

n/d → 16.91

Residual

-10.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.