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3804.T$475.00+1.93%
Fair $475.00+0.0%

3804.T

System D Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$475.00

+9.00 (+1.93%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $475.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $719.1M · quality 52.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3804.TLocal privado en este navegador · System D Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.1B

P/E

14.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

12.5%

↑

Gross Margin

43.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.04

↓
52-Week Range$475
$466$834

TradingView lightweight chart

3804.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $475.00Periodo +14.0%
Fair value: $475.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

14.3%

FCF / Net income

1.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.03B · net income $627.9M · FCF $719.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

43.3%-2.8% pts

Operating margin

18.6%-2.6% pts

Net margin

12.5%-1.5% pts

FCF margin

14.3%+21.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.03B$5.03B$4.63B$4.74B$4.23B
Net Income$627.9M$627.9M$555.9M$632.7M$591.6M
EBITDA$1.43B$1.43B$1.34B$1.38B$1.33B
EPS——28.9332.9430.80
Gross Margin43.3%43.3%43.3%43.6%46.2%
Operating Margin18.6%18.6%17.9%19.3%21.2%
Net Margin12.5%12.5%12.0%13.4%14.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.040.040.070.110.16
Current Ratio2.122.12———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$719.1M$719.1M$1.10B$348.8M$-318.3M
Returns
ROE12.5%12.5%12.3%15.5%16.5%
Valuation
P/E14.5614.5615.3413.8116.00
EV/EBITDA5.075.075.075.786.62
P/B1.831.831.892.132.64
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.7%8.7%-2.2%11.9%—
EPS Growth——-12.2%7.0%—
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -17.4%

Total return

-17.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

28.93 → n/d

Residual

-19.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.