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v0.1
3816.HK$2.55+2.00%
Fair $2.55+0.0%

3816.HK

KFM Kingdom Holdings Limited

Industrials / Metal FabricationHKSE

$2.55

+0.05 (+2.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.55Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 61/B
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.8M · quality 47.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

61/100

B

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3816.HKLocal privado en este navegador · KFM Kingdom Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.5B

P/E

36.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.2x

↑

ROE

6.6%

↑

Gross Margin

18.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$3
$0$3

TradingView lightweight chart

3816.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.550Periodo +269.6%
Fair value: $2.550

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.4%

FCF / Net income

-0.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $757.5M · net income $36.3M · FCF $-33.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.1%+1.8% pts

Operating margin

4.2%-0.3% pts

Net margin

4.8%+12.7% pts

FCF margin

-4.4%+9.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$757.5M$757.5M$589.9M$605.1M$612.2M
Net Income$36.3M$36.3M$23.2M$22.7M$-48.2M
EBITDA$74.8M$74.8M$67.7M$61.9M$62.2M
EPS0.060.060.040.04-0.08
Gross Margin18.1%18.1%18.2%17.1%16.3%
Operating Margin4.2%4.2%2.9%3.7%4.5%
Net Margin4.8%4.8%3.9%3.7%-7.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.110.220.28
Current Ratio2.322.32———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-33.2M$-33.2M$2.8M$8.3M$-82.1M
Returns
ROE6.6%6.6%4.4%4.4%-9.5%
Valuation
P/E36.4336.439.046.35—
EV/EBITDA20.1520.152.312.613.39
P/B2.762.760.400.280.30
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth28.4%28.4%-2.5%-1.2%—
EPS Growth56.3%56.3%2.4%147.1%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

55.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.23

Spread vs growth

1.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

35.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.27

Spread vs growth

21.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.44

Spread vs growth

34.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +697.4%

Total return

+697.4%

Start / end P/E

8.3x → 42.1x

EPS bridge

0.04 → 0.06

Residual

+230.8%

EPS growth+56.3%
Multiple rerating+409.7%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+230.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.