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v0.1
3830.HK$0.20-0.49%
Fair $0.20+0.0%

3830.HK

Kiddieland International Limited

Consumer Cyclical / LeisureHKSE

$0.20

-0.00 (-0.49%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.20Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $5.4M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 11/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -38.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3830.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Kiddieland International Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$203M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

38.0x

↑

ROE

-38.0%

↓

Gross Margin

14.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$0
$0$0

TradingView lightweight chart

3830.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.203Periodo -74.0%
Fair value: $0.203

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $196.9M · net income $-7.0M · FCF $1.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.9%+10.7% pts

Operating margin

-2.8%+10.4% pts

Net margin

-3.5%+23.3% pts

FCF margin

0.5%+14.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$196.9M$196.9M$215.1M$176.2M$244.2M
Net Income$-7.0M$-7.0M$-7.3M$-50.5M$-65.5M
EBITDA$5.2M$5.2M$4.0M$-34.9M$-47.2M
EPS-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.05-0.07
Gross Margin14.9%14.9%15.2%3.8%4.3%
Operating Margin-2.8%-2.8%-4.1%-21.4%-13.2%
Net Margin-3.5%-3.5%-3.4%-28.7%-26.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.110.140.65
Current Ratio1.151.15———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.1M$1.1M$5.4M$37.2M$-32.8M
Returns
ROE-38.0%-38.0%-28.6%-145.3%-75.7%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA38.0138.016.54——
P/B11.0511.051.211.211.40
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.5%-8.5%22.1%-27.8%—
EPS Growth0.0%0.0%86.3%22.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +351.1%

Total return

+351.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.01 → -0.01

Residual

+351.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+351.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.