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3853.T$2086.00-13.23%
Fair $2086.00+0.0%

3853.T

Asteria Corporation

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$2086.00

-318.00 (-13.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2086.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $507.3M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3853.TLocal privado en este navegador · Asteria Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$35.4B

P/E

50.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

31.2x

↑

ROE

9.6%

↑

Gross Margin

89.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$2086
$478$2753

TradingView lightweight chart

3853.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,086Periodo +332.9%
Fair value: $2,086

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

25.8%

FCF / Net income

1.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.17B · net income $588.6M · FCF $816.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

89.3%+5.3% pts

Operating margin

24.6%-91.5% pts

Net margin

18.6%-66.0% pts

FCF margin

25.8%+25.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.17B$3.17B$2.91B$2.79B$2.97B
Net Income$588.6M$588.6M$-1.81B$-1.67B$2.51B
EBITDA$1.04B$1.04B$-3.00B$-1.55B$4.16B
EPS35.0235.02-107.84-99.63152.43
Gross Margin89.3%89.3%90.6%89.3%84.0%
Operating Margin24.6%24.6%-125.2%-70.2%116.1%
Net Margin18.6%18.6%-62.3%-60.1%84.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.080.080.09
Current Ratio2.492.49———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$816.9M$816.9M$507.3M$-156.4M$-5.4M
Returns
ROE9.6%9.6%-32.4%-23.5%30.0%
Valuation
P/E50.0050.00——6.45
EV/EBITDA31.1831.18——3.64
P/B5.745.741.921.681.94
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.0%9.0%4.4%-6.1%—
EPS Growth132.5%132.5%-8.2%-165.4%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

74.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$185.10

Spread vs growth

58.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

44.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$223.97

Spread vs growth

87.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

26.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$360.70

Spread vs growth

106.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +324.5%

Total return

+324.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-107.84 → 35.02

Residual

+324.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+324.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.