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3856.T$497.00-2.64%
Fair $497.00+0.0%

3856.T

Abalance Corporation

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$497.00

-14.00 (-2.64%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $497.00Fund rank 19/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.9B · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 19/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 5/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3856.TLocal privado en este navegador · Abalance Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.4B

P/E

1.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

0.5x

↓

ROE

39.5%

↑

Gross Margin

21.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.87

↑
52-Week Range$497
$328$1400

TradingView lightweight chart

3856.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $516.00Periodo -26.6%
Fair value: $497.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+98.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

16.2%

FCF / Net income

3.56x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $208.97B · net income $9.53B · FCF $33.94B

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

21.3%+3.5% pts

Operating margin

11.2%+6.1% pts

Net margin

4.6%+2.6% pts

FCF margin

16.2%+28.7% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$208.97B$208.97B$215.28B$92.44B$26.90B
Net Income$9.53B$9.53B$4.96B$867.0M$537.0M
EBITDA$31.41B$31.41B$17.75B$4.61B$2.29B
EPS543.99543.99290.4152.6933.70
Gross Margin21.3%21.3%13.8%10.5%17.8%
Operating Margin11.2%11.2%6.0%1.8%5.1%
Net Margin4.6%4.6%2.3%0.9%2.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.871.874.055.243.43
Current Ratio1.111.11———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$33.94B$33.94B$3.93B$-12.50B$-3.35B
Returns
ROE39.5%39.5%38.6%14.3%13.4%
Valuation
P/E1.401.4035.7830.4358.46
EV/EBITDA0.510.5111.7711.7517.64
P/B0.360.3613.814.357.81
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.9%-2.9%132.9%243.6%—
EPS Growth87.3%87.3%451.2%56.4%—
Dividend Yield1.2%1.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-56.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$44.10

Spread vs growth

144.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-37.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$53.36

Spread vs growth

124.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-16.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$85.94

Spread vs growth

104.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -24.1%

Total return

-24.1%

Start / end P/E

2.4x → 0.9x

EPS bridge

290.41 → 543.99

Residual

-52.5%

EPS growth+87.3%
Multiple rerating-60.1%
Dividend+1.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-52.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.