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v0.1
3878.HK$0.24-1.24%
Fair $0.24+0.0%

3878.HK

Vicon Holdings Limited

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionHKSE

$0.24

-0.00 (-1.24%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.24Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $8.0M · quality 47.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 1.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3878.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Vicon Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$114M

P/E

23.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.9x

↓

ROE

1.8%

↓

Gross Margin

6.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$0
$0$0

TradingView lightweight chart

3878.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.238Periodo -81.1%
Fair value: $0.238

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+24.7%

FCF CAGR

-35.3%

FCF margin

2.6%

FCF / Net income

1.66x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $303.9M · net income $4.8M · FCF $8.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

6.8%-22.8% pts

Operating margin

3.7%-2.6% pts

Net margin

1.6%+17.3% pts

FCF margin

2.6%-16.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$303.9M$303.9M$486.6M$417.0M$156.6M
Net Income$4.8M$4.8M$8.3M$2.4M$-24.6M
EBITDA$15.6M$15.6M$17.4M$13.1M$-5.1M
EPS0.010.010.020.01-0.05
Gross Margin6.8%6.8%9.0%11.0%29.6%
Operating Margin3.7%3.7%6.8%8.6%6.3%
Net Margin1.6%1.6%1.7%0.6%-15.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.030.040.09
Current Ratio7.717.71———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$8.0M$8.0M$38.5M$-17.6M$29.7M
Returns
ROE1.8%1.8%3.1%0.9%-9.6%
Valuation
P/E23.8023.8013.4926.40—
EV/EBITDA5.935.934.844.24—
P/B0.420.420.420.251.04
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-37.5%-37.5%16.7%166.3%—
EPS Growth-41.3%-41.3%244.0%109.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

27.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.02

Spread vs growth

-69.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

20.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.03

Spread vs growth

-61.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.04

Spread vs growth

-56.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +22.7%

Total return

+22.7%

Start / end P/E

11.3x → 23.6x

EPS bridge

0.02 → 0.01

Residual

-45.0%

EPS growth-41.3%
Multiple rerating+108.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-45.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.