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3904.T$396.00-1.00%
Fair $396.00+0.0%

3904.T

KAYAC Inc.

Communication Services / Electronic Gaming & MultimediaTokyo

$396.00

-4.00 (-1.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $396.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $352.6M · quality 50.7/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3904.TLocal privado en este navegador · KAYAC Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.1B

P/E

9.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

2.8x

↓

ROE

11.8%

↑

Gross Margin

54.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.56

↑
52-Week Range$396
$395$606

TradingView lightweight chart

3904.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $396.00Periodo -59.4%
Fair value: $396.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.8%

FCF CAGR

-37.2%

FCF margin

1.8%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $20.09B · net income $683.9M · FCF $352.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

54.3%+6.4% pts

Operating margin

5.3%-2.0% pts

Net margin

3.4%-1.3% pts

FCF margin

1.8%-6.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$20.09B$20.09B$16.73B$17.47B$16.50B
Net Income$683.9M$683.9M$149.1M$511.2M$779.8M
EBITDA$1.48B$1.48B$725.8M$1.30B$1.51B
EPS——9.2531.5849.54
Gross Margin54.3%54.3%54.0%52.8%48.0%
Operating Margin5.3%5.3%2.1%5.9%7.3%
Net Margin3.4%3.4%0.9%2.9%4.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.560.560.590.390.48
Current Ratio1.911.91———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$352.6M$352.6M$-440.2M$974.0M$1.42B
Returns
ROE11.8%11.8%2.7%9.4%16.0%
Valuation
P/E9.299.2949.0825.5916.69
EV/EBITDA2.762.767.997.837.41
P/B1.051.051.322.402.68
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.1%20.1%-4.2%5.8%—
EPS Growth——-70.7%-36.3%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.2%

Total return

-5.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

9.25 → n/d

Residual

-6.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.