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3909.T$205.00-1.44%
Fair $205.00+0.0%

3909.T

Showcase Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$205.00

-3.00 (-1.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $205.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 22/D
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-902.3M · quality 45.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 38/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

22/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.33, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -93.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3909.TLocal privado en este navegador · Showcase Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.8B

P/E

6.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-93.3%

↓

Gross Margin

24.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.33

↑
52-Week Range$205
$203$450

TradingView lightweight chart

3909.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $205.00Periodo -83.0%
Fair value: $205.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+57.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-14.5%

FCF / Net income

1.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.21B · net income $-742.8M · FCF $-902.3M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

24.3%-51.7% pts

Operating margin

-2.7%-3.5% pts

Net margin

-12.0%-15.7% pts

FCF margin

-14.5%-12.9% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$6.21B$6.21B$5.68B$4.63B$1.59B
Net Income$-742.8M$-742.8M$-118.0M$-526.3M$59.8M
EBITDA$-503.0M$-503.0M$24.7M$-475.8M$154.8M
EPS-104.86-104.86-14.61-61.436.97
Gross Margin24.3%24.3%28.2%36.6%75.9%
Operating Margin-2.7%-2.7%-5.0%-11.5%0.8%
Net Margin-12.0%-12.0%-2.1%-11.4%3.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.332.331.820.750.14
Current Ratio3.113.11———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-902.3M$-902.3M$-408.4M$-947.6M$-25.2M
Returns
ROE-93.3%-93.3%-13.4%-32.9%2.7%
Valuation
P/E6.616.61——65.57
EV/EBITDA——112.31—15.10
P/B1.821.822.791.691.80
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.3%9.3%22.7%190.5%—
EPS Growth-617.7%-617.7%76.2%-981.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -36.5%

Total return

-36.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-14.61 → -104.86

Residual

-36.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-36.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.