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3928.HK$23.26+5.73%
Fair $23.26+0.0%

3928.HK

China Next-Gen Commerce and Supply Chain Limited

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionHKSE

$23.26

+1.26 (+5.73%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $23.26Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.2M · quality 49.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -3.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3928.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Next-Gen Commerce and Supply Chain Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$11.5B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

5911.0x

↑

ROE

-3.4%

↓

Gross Margin

8.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.59

↑
52-Week Range$23
$2$25

TradingView lightweight chart

3928.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $23.26Periodo +1806.6%
Fair value: $23.26

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.5%

FCF / Net income

0.37x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $61.7M · net income $-880913.0 · FCF $-326461.0

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.0%+3.2% pts

Operating margin

-2.5%+3.4% pts

Net margin

-1.4%+0.8% pts

FCF margin

-0.5%-2.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$61.7M$61.7M$56.0M$56.1M$67.1M
Net Income$-880913.00$-880913.00$-784153.00$-1.0M$-1.5M
EBITDA$1.9M$1.9M$2.7M$2.0M$2.9M
EPS——-0.00-0.00-0.00
Gross Margin8.0%8.0%8.6%6.8%4.8%
Operating Margin-2.5%-2.5%-1.5%-5.6%-6.0%
Net Margin-1.4%-1.4%-1.4%-1.9%-2.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.590.590.680.700.88
Current Ratio1.181.18———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-326461.00$-326461.00$1.2M$1.4M$1.4M
Returns
ROE-3.4%-3.4%-2.9%-3.7%-5.1%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA5910.975910.97680.06290.99151.61
P/B424.61424.6167.3020.6014.57
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.2%10.2%-0.1%-16.5%—
EPS Growth——27.3%29.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1150.5%

Total return

+1150.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.00 → n/d

Residual

+1150.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1150.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.