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v0.1
3929.T$312.00-2.19%
Fair $312.00+0.0%

3929.T

Socialwire Co., Ltd.

Communication Services / EntertainmentTokyo

$312.00

-7.00 (-2.19%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $312.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-86.0M · quality 48.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 3929.TLocal privado en este navegador · Socialwire Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.7B

P/E

16.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.8x

↓

ROE

11.0%

↑

Gross Margin

63.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.13

↓
52-Week Range$312
$233$375

TradingView lightweight chart

3929.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $312.00Periodo -70.2%
Fair value: $312.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-14.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.0%

FCF / Net income

-0.51x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.91B · net income $170.0M · FCF $-86.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

63.4%+16.8% pts

Operating margin

4.7%+1.2% pts

Net margin

5.9%+5.2% pts

FCF margin

-3.0%-9.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.91B$2.91B$3.67B$4.77B$4.63B
Net Income$170.0M$170.0M$-146.4M$-876.9M$28.7M
EBITDA$342.9M$342.9M$131.3M$-274.9M$523.3M
EPS16.5416.54-24.52-146.824.79
Gross Margin63.4%63.4%51.8%41.1%46.7%
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%-0.1%-4.4%3.5%
Net Margin5.9%5.9%-4.0%-18.4%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.130.134.7612.141.89
Current Ratio1.941.94———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-86.0M$-86.0M$-51.9M$-266.3M$296.1M
Returns
ROE11.0%11.0%-186.7%-441.0%2.7%
Valuation
P/E16.4616.46——97.91
EV/EBITDA5.805.8011.57—7.44
P/B2.082.0819.128.052.67
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-20.8%-20.8%-23.1%3.0%—
EPS Growth167.5%167.5%83.3%-3165.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

18.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$27.68

Spread vs growth

148.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

15.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$33.50

Spread vs growth

152.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$53.95

Spread vs growth

154.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +21.9%

Total return

+21.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-24.52 → 16.54

Residual

+21.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+21.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.