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3930.T$905.00-1.63%
Fair $905.00+0.0%

3930.T

Hatena Co., Ltd.

Communication Services / Internet Content & InformationTokyo

$905.00

-15.00 (-1.63%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $905.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 28/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 15%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-2.0M · quality 33.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

28/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 2.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3930.TLocal privado en este navegador · Hatena Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.7B

P/E

19.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.6x

↓

ROE

2.4%

↓

Gross Margin

82.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$905
$823$1694

TradingView lightweight chart

3930.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $905.00Periodo -66.5%
Fair value: $905.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.31B · net income $62.4M · FCF $-2.0M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

82.0%-7.4% pts

Operating margin

2.1%-7.4% pts

Net margin

1.9%-4.7% pts

FCF margin

-0.1%-6.7% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$3.31B$3.31B$3.15B$3.06B$2.62B
Net Income$62.4M$62.4M$99.6M$240.2M$172.6M
EBITDA$207.8M$207.8M$280.6M$449.7M$364.5M
EPS21.0921.0933.3778.83—
Gross Margin82.0%82.0%83.0%86.5%89.4%
Operating Margin2.1%2.1%5.5%10.6%9.5%
Net Margin1.9%1.9%3.2%7.8%6.6%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio4.874.87———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-2.0M$-2.0M$-112.2M$226.9M$174.8M
Returns
ROE2.4%2.4%4.0%9.8%7.5%
Valuation
P/E19.4819.4826.6115.36—
EV/EBITDA5.645.644.174.427.10
P/B1.051.051.071.511.76
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.1%5.1%2.8%16.9%—
EPS Growth-36.8%-36.8%-57.7%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

56.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$80.30

Spread vs growth

-93.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

35.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$97.17

Spread vs growth

-72.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$156.49

Spread vs growth

-59.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -33.9%

Total return

-33.9%

Start / end P/E

41.1x → 42.9x

EPS bridge

33.37 → 21.09

Residual

-1.7%

EPS growth-36.8%
Multiple rerating+4.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.