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3946.T$3730.00-3.12%
Fair $3730.00+0.0%

3946.T

Tomoku Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTokyo

$3730.00

-120.00 (-3.12%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3730.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 65/B
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.0B · quality 37.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

65/100

B

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3946.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tomoku Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$61.5B

P/E

8.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.0x

↓

ROE

7.0%

↑

Gross Margin

16.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.73

↑
52-Week Range$3730
$2650$4075

TradingView lightweight chart

3946.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,730Periodo +286.5%
Fair value: $3,730

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.5%

FCF / Net income

1.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $219.61B · net income $6.51B · FCF $7.75B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.8%+0.4% pts

Operating margin

4.3%+0.2% pts

Net margin

3.0%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

3.5%+4.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$219.61B$219.61B$211.53B$212.82B$206.01B
Net Income$6.51B$6.51B$5.31B$5.25B$5.98B
EBITDA$18.04B$18.04B$16.89B$15.80B$16.53B
EPS395.46395.46322.99319.71364.87
Gross Margin16.8%16.8%16.5%15.8%16.5%
Operating Margin4.3%4.3%3.8%3.5%4.0%
Net Margin3.0%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.730.730.820.870.89
Current Ratio1.471.47———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$7.75B$7.75B$4.03B$-2.47B$-1.07B
Returns
ROE7.0%7.0%6.0%6.5%7.9%
Valuation
P/E8.358.358.014.954.17
EV/EBITDA5.995.995.765.104.56
P/B0.660.660.480.320.33
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.8%3.8%-0.6%3.3%—
EPS Growth22.4%22.4%1.0%-12.4%—
Dividend Yield4.4%4.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$330.98

Spread vs growth

28.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$400.48

Spread vs growth

22.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$644.98

Spread vs growth

17.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +44.1%

Total return

+44.1%

Start / end P/E

8.3x → 9.4x

EPS bridge

322.99 → 395.46

Residual

+3.2%

EPS growth+22.4%
Multiple rerating+14.1%
Dividend+4.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+3.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.