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3950.T$1224.00-1.77%
Fair $1224.00+0.0%

3950.T

The Pack Corporation

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTokyo

$1224.00

-22.00 (-1.77%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1224.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.4B · quality 48.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3950.TLocal privado en este navegador · The Pack Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$68.1B

P/E

11.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.8x

↓

ROE

7.8%

↑

Gross Margin

24.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$1224
$1015$1399

TradingView lightweight chart

3950.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,224Periodo +267.2%
Fair value: $1,224

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.0%

FCF CAGR

+16.6%

FCF margin

2.8%

FCF / Net income

0.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $103.13B · net income $6.02B · FCF $2.91B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.7%+0.3% pts

Operating margin

7.0%+0.3% pts

Net margin

5.8%+1.3% pts

FCF margin

2.8%+0.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$103.13B$103.13B$101.46B$97.71B$89.06B
Net Income$6.02B$6.02B$6.32B$5.65B$4.06B
EBITDA$11.82B$11.82B$11.58B$10.02B$7.92B
EPS107.09107.09111.1198.9571.13
Gross Margin24.7%24.7%25.2%25.3%24.3%
Operating Margin7.0%7.0%7.9%7.9%6.7%
Net Margin5.8%5.8%6.2%5.8%4.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.000.000.00
Current Ratio2.912.91———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.91B$2.91B$1.41B$-2.84B$1.84B
Returns
ROE7.8%7.8%8.5%7.9%6.2%
Valuation
P/E11.4411.4410.7411.0811.34
EV/EBITDA3.833.834.564.623.78
P/B0.890.890.910.880.70
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.6%1.6%3.8%9.7%—
EPS Growth-3.6%-3.6%12.3%39.1%—
Dividend Yield3.4%3.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

0.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$108.61

Spread vs growth

-4.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

4.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$131.42

Spread vs growth

-7.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$211.65

Spread vs growth

-10.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +22.2%

Total return

+22.2%

Start / end P/E

9.3x → 11.4x

EPS bridge

111.11 → 107.09

Residual

-0.8%

EPS growth-3.6%
Multiple rerating+23.3%
Dividend+3.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.