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3951.T$835.00-0.70%
Fair $835.00+0.0%

3951.T

Asahi Printing Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTokyo

$835.00

-6.00 (-0.70%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $835.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 6/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $650.2M · quality 56.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 49/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 5.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3951.TLocal privado en este navegador · Asahi Printing Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$17.3B

P/E

11.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.9x

↓

ROE

5.0%

↑

Gross Margin

22.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.63

↑
52-Week Range$835
$846$941

TradingView lightweight chart

3951.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $846.00Periodo +99.3%
Fair value: $835.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.2%

FCF CAGR

-52.7%

FCF margin

0.9%

FCF / Net income

0.23x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $43.95B · net income $1.70B · FCF $395.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.5%-1.2% pts

Operating margin

4.7%-1.2% pts

Net margin

3.9%-0.7% pts

FCF margin

0.9%-8.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$43.95B$43.95B$41.87B$40.30B$38.81B
Net Income$1.70B$1.70B$1.63B$1.71B$1.78B
EBITDA$5.88B$5.88B$5.27B$5.46B$5.67B
EPS80.2380.2375.3378.3881.24
Gross Margin22.5%22.5%22.6%23.1%23.8%
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%4.9%5.6%5.9%
Net Margin3.9%3.9%3.9%4.2%4.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.630.630.610.580.76
Current Ratio1.851.85———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$395.6M$395.6M$650.2M$1.95B$3.73B
Returns
ROE5.0%5.0%4.9%5.3%5.7%
Valuation
P/E11.0211.0212.1511.1510.08
EV/EBITDA4.944.945.864.934.77
P/B0.520.520.600.590.57
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.0%5.0%3.9%3.9%—
EPS Growth6.5%6.5%-3.9%-3.5%—
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$74.09

Spread vs growth

9.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$89.65

Spread vs growth

4.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$144.38

Spread vs growth

0.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +2.0%

Total return

+2.0%

Start / end P/E

11.5x → 10.5x

EPS bridge

75.33 → 80.23

Residual

-0.6%

EPS growth+6.5%
Multiple rerating-8.5%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.