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3953.T$739.00-1.20%
Fair $739.00+0.0%

3953.T

Ohmura Shigyo Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTokyo

$739.00

-9.00 (-1.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $739.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $89.7M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -2.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 3953.TLocal privado en este navegador · Ohmura Shigyo Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.6B

P/E

7.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

0.6x

↓

ROE

-2.2%

↓

Gross Margin

25.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$739
$729$881

TradingView lightweight chart

3953.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $739.00Periodo +99.7%
Fair value: $739.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.9%

FCF / Net income

2.12x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.94B · net income $-109.8M · FCF $-233.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.9%-2.0% pts

Operating margin

4.7%-0.5% pts

Net margin

-1.8%-4.5% pts

FCF margin

-3.9%-6.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.94B$5.94B$5.74B$5.42B$4.98B
Net Income$-109.8M$-109.8M$248.6M$26.3M$130.3M
EBITDA$179.9M$179.9M$564.0M$299.0M$389.1M
EPS-30.83-30.8369.797.1927.07
Gross Margin25.9%25.9%26.9%25.9%27.8%
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%6.0%5.0%5.1%
Net Margin-1.8%-1.8%4.3%0.5%2.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.060.030.02
Current Ratio6.176.17———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-233.2M$-233.2M$416.9M$89.7M$145.8M
Returns
ROE-2.2%-2.2%4.9%0.5%2.3%
Valuation
P/E7.197.1911.1080.3921.32
EV/EBITDA0.560.56-0.18-1.90-1.41
P/B0.540.540.540.440.50
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.5%3.5%5.8%8.9%—
EPS Growth-144.2%-144.2%870.7%-73.4%—
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +2.0%

Total return

+2.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

69.79 → -30.83

Residual

-2.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.