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3954.T$2820.00-1.37%
Fair $2820.00+0.0%

3954.T

Showa Paxxs Corporation

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTokyo

$2820.00

-40.00 (-1.37%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2820.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 64/B
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $254.4M · quality 58.7/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 37/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

64/100

B

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3954.TLocal privado en este navegador · Showa Paxxs Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$12.4B

P/E

9.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.8x

↓

ROE

5.6%

↑

Gross Margin

18.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$2820
$1825$3470

TradingView lightweight chart

3954.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,890Periodo +312.9%
Fair value: $2,820

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.6%

FCF CAGR

+11.0%

FCF margin

4.0%

FCF / Net income

0.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $23.32B · net income $1.32B · FCF $937.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.3%-0.1% pts

Operating margin

5.9%-0.6% pts

Net margin

5.7%+0.6% pts

FCF margin

4.0%+0.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$23.32B$23.32B$21.65B$22.28B$21.60B
Net Income$1.32B$1.32B$962.4M$948.0M$1.10B
EBITDA$2.59B$2.59B$1.97B$1.95B$2.16B
EPS297.41297.41216.74213.51248.24
Gross Margin18.3%18.3%17.6%16.8%18.4%
Operating Margin5.9%5.9%4.7%5.0%6.5%
Net Margin5.7%5.7%4.4%4.3%5.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.050.060.06
Current Ratio2.992.99———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$937.7M$937.7M$254.4M$-30.4M$686.0M
Returns
ROE5.6%5.6%4.2%4.6%5.7%
Valuation
P/E9.659.658.547.536.05
EV/EBITDA1.851.850.520.14-0.11
P/B0.530.530.360.350.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.7%7.7%-2.8%3.1%—
EPS Growth37.2%37.2%1.5%-14.0%—
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$250.23

Spread vs growth

42.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$302.78

Spread vs growth

36.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$487.62

Spread vs growth

32.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +58.9%

Total return

+58.9%

Start / end P/E

8.5x → 9.7x

EPS bridge

216.74 → 297.41

Residual

+5.4%

EPS growth+37.2%
Multiple rerating+14.5%
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+5.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.