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3962.T$911.00-0.55%
Fair $911.00+0.0%

3962.T

CHANGE Holdings,Inc.

Technology / Information Technology ServicesTokyo

$911.00

-5.00 (-0.55%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $911.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $6.8B · quality 42.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 36/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 3962.TLocal privado en este navegador · CHANGE Holdings,Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$63.4B

P/E

9.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.3x

↓

ROE

18.3%

↑

Gross Margin

55.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.84

↑
52-Week Range$911
$888$1333

TradingView lightweight chart

3962.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $911.00Periodo +373.2%
Fair value: $911.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2025 · 4 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+31.2%

FCF CAGR

+20.7%

FCF margin

14.7%

FCF / Net income

0.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $46.39B · net income $7.53B · FCF $6.83B

2021-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

55.8%-18.2% pts

Operating margin

27.1%-11.2% pts

Net margin

16.2%-10.0% pts

FCF margin

14.7%-5.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$46.39B$46.39B$37.01B$20.02B$15.65B
Net Income$7.53B$7.53B$4.26B$3.86B$4.10B
EBITDA$15.92B$15.92B$9.26B$6.70B$6.73B
EPS107.27107.2758.8052.4157.41
Gross Margin55.8%55.8%62.2%62.5%74.0%
Operating Margin27.1%27.1%25.9%28.7%38.2%
Net Margin16.2%16.2%11.5%19.3%26.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.840.840.610.090.06
Current Ratio1.431.43———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$6.83B$6.83B$9.85B$-4.33B$3.22B
Returns
ROE18.3%18.3%10.8%10.6%13.5%
Valuation
P/E9.149.1420.3445.0336.13
EV/EBITDA4.294.297.9523.0018.19
P/B1.551.552.234.764.87
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth25.3%25.3%84.9%27.9%—
EPS Growth82.4%82.4%12.2%-8.7%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-9.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$80.84

Spread vs growth

91.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-1.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$97.81

Spread vs growth

84.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$157.53

Spread vs growth

78.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.8%

Total return

-19.8%

Start / end P/E

20.0x → 8.5x

EPS bridge

58.80 → 107.27

Residual

-47.5%

EPS growth+82.4%
Multiple rerating-57.6%
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-47.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.