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3964.T$1444.00+1.05%
Fair $1444.00+0.0%

3964.T

Aucnet Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Internet RetailTokyo

$1444.00

+15.00 (+1.05%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1444.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.3B · quality 59.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 70/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3964.TLocal privado en este navegador · Aucnet Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$131.0B

P/E

22.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.0x

↑

ROE

22.5%

↑

Gross Margin

42.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$1444
$712$1616

TradingView lightweight chart

3964.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,444Periodo +367.7%
Fair value: $1,444

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.6%

FCF CAGR

+42.8%

FCF margin

17.2%

FCF / Net income

1.87x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $64.14B · net income $5.92B · FCF $11.05B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

42.1%-0.7% pts

Operating margin

14.8%-1.5% pts

Net margin

9.2%-1.5% pts

FCF margin

17.2%+7.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$64.14B$64.14B$55.91B$43.30B$40.46B
Net Income$5.92B$5.92B$4.49B$4.37B$4.35B
EBITDA$9.89B$9.89B$7.85B$7.68B$7.42B
EPS64.9264.9246.9843.7539.62
Gross Margin42.1%42.1%39.9%41.7%42.8%
Operating Margin14.8%14.8%12.5%15.4%16.3%
Net Margin9.2%9.2%8.0%10.1%10.7%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio1.841.84———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$11.05B$11.05B$3.50B$4.33B$3.79B
Returns
ROE22.5%22.5%17.3%19.7%19.3%
Valuation
P/E22.2622.2614.2110.7711.18
EV/EBITDA10.9810.985.963.583.85
P/B5.005.002.462.122.16
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.7%14.7%29.1%7.0%—
EPS Growth38.2%38.2%7.4%10.4%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

25.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$128.13

Spread vs growth

12.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

19.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$155.04

Spread vs growth

19.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$249.69

Spread vs growth

23.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +98.6%

Total return

+98.6%

Start / end P/E

15.7x → 22.2x

EPS bridge

46.98 → 64.92

Residual

+15.9%

EPS growth+38.2%
Multiple rerating+41.6%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+15.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.