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3969.T$1334.00-0.82%
Fair $1334.00+0.0%

3969.T

ATLED CORP.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$1334.00

-11.00 (-0.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1334.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $632.5M · quality 63.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3969.TLocal privado en este navegador · ATLED CORP.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.0B

P/E

13.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.5x

↓

ROE

14.2%

↑

Gross Margin

66.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$1334
$1323$1609

TradingView lightweight chart

3969.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,334Periodo -4.9%
Fair value: $1,334

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.4%

FCF CAGR

-4.0%

FCF margin

25.1%

FCF / Net income

0.95x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.77B · net income $728.3M · FCF $694.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

66.5%-9.8% pts

Operating margin

38.3%-4.7% pts

Net margin

26.3%-2.3% pts

FCF margin

25.1%-12.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.77B$2.77B$2.50B$2.17B$2.11B
Net Income$728.3M$728.3M$713.8M$670.3M$604.3M
EBITDA$1.43B$1.43B$1.33B$1.22B$1.09B
EPS97.2897.2895.3389.5380.72
Gross Margin66.5%66.5%71.2%77.1%76.3%
Operating Margin38.3%38.3%42.0%46.1%42.9%
Net Margin26.3%26.3%28.5%30.9%28.6%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio4.924.92———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$694.5M$694.5M$632.5M$483.0M$785.7M
Returns
ROE14.2%14.2%15.5%16.5%17.1%
Valuation
P/E13.9513.9514.9315.5828.77
EV/EBITDA3.483.484.615.2212.45
P/B1.941.942.312.574.91
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.6%10.6%15.4%2.5%—
EPS Growth2.0%2.0%6.5%10.9%—
Dividend Yield2.7%2.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$118.37

Spread vs growth

-4.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$143.23

Spread vs growth

-6.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$230.67

Spread vs growth

-7.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.4%

Total return

-1.4%

Start / end P/E

14.6x → 13.7x

EPS bridge

95.33 → 97.28

Residual

-0.1%

EPS growth+2.0%
Multiple rerating-6.0%
Dividend+2.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.