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3978.HK$3.32+0.61%
Fair $3.32+0.0%

3978.HK

China Beststudy Education Group

Consumer Defensive / Education & Training ServicesHKSE

$3.32

+0.02 (+0.61%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.32Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $491.9M · quality 55.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 47/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 3978.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Beststudy Education Group
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

7.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.4x

↓

ROE

36.1%

↑

Gross Margin

45.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.40

↑
52-Week Range$3
$3$6

TradingView lightweight chart

3978.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.320Periodo +38.3%
Fair value: $3.320

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+57.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

25.8%

FCF / Net income

1.63x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.90B · net income $301.5M · FCF $491.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

45.4%+10.1% pts

Operating margin

20.6%+21.8% pts

Net margin

15.8%+4.4% pts

FCF margin

25.8%+42.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.90B$1.90B$1.10B$489.3M$491.1M
Net Income$301.5M$301.5M$192.5M$91.2M$56.3M
EBITDA$533.5M$533.5M$351.8M$203.6M$158.3M
EPS——0.260.120.07
Gross Margin45.4%45.4%46.3%47.0%35.2%
Operating Margin20.6%20.6%22.5%23.8%-1.2%
Net Margin15.8%15.8%17.5%18.6%11.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.400.400.440.380.49
Current Ratio1.191.19———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$491.9M$491.9M$772.1M$273.6M$-82.5M
Returns
ROE36.1%36.1%29.4%18.3%13.8%
Valuation
P/E7.387.3814.7114.7712.17
EV/EBITDA4.364.367.406.174.35
P/B3.373.374.332.711.68
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth72.8%72.8%125.2%-0.4%—
EPS Growth——110.9%62.0%—
Dividend Yield10.9%10.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -26.6%

Total return

-26.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.26 → n/d

Residual

-37.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+10.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-37.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.