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v0.1
4005.SR$102.40+3.43%
Fair $102.40+0.0%

4005.SR

National Medical Care Company

Healthcare / Medical Care FacilitiesSaudi

$102.40

+3.40 (+3.43%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $102.40Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $22.9M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4005.SRLocal privado en este navegador · National Medical Care Company
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.6B

P/E

15.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.5x

↓

ROE

17.2%

↑

Gross Margin

36.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.28

↑
52-Week Range$102
$95$184

TradingView lightweight chart

4005.SR price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $102.40Periodo -16.1%
Fair value: $102.40

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+20.4%

FCF CAGR

+65.9%

FCF margin

1.4%

FCF / Net income

0.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.60B · net income $318.5M · FCF $22.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.8%+5.2% pts

Operating margin

22.1%+0.8% pts

Net margin

19.9%+1.4% pts

FCF margin

1.4%+0.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.60B$1.60B$1.29B$1.08B$917.9M
Net Income$318.5M$318.5M$294.7M$240.9M$170.1M
EBITDA$484.0M$484.0M$396.9M$323.0M$244.2M
EPS7.137.136.585.373.79
Gross Margin36.8%36.8%34.9%34.2%31.6%
Operating Margin22.1%22.1%19.4%22.7%21.4%
Net Margin19.9%19.9%22.8%22.3%18.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.280.280.300.230.07
Current Ratio5.165.16———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$22.9M$22.9M$-6.6M$412.2M$5.0M
Returns
ROE17.2%17.2%18.1%16.6%13.5%
Valuation
P/E15.5215.5224.3833.7820.24
EV/EBITDA9.539.5318.6625.2613.08
P/B2.472.474.425.602.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth23.7%23.7%19.6%17.8%—
EPS Growth8.4%8.4%22.5%41.7%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

8.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$9.09

Spread vs growth

-0.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$10.99

Spread vs growth

-0.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$17.71

Spread vs growth

-1.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -35.0%

Total return

-35.0%

Start / end P/E

25.1x → 14.4x

EPS bridge

6.58 → 7.13

Residual

-3.6%

EPS growth+8.4%
Multiple rerating-42.7%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.