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4011.T$2432.00-0.69%
Fair $2432.00+0.0%

4011.T

Headwaters Co.,Ltd

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$2432.00

-17.00 (-0.69%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2432.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $71.4M · quality 33.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 31/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 4.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4011.TLocal privado en este navegador · Headwaters Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$14.8B

P/E

174.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

65.4x

↑

ROE

4.3%

↓

Gross Margin

44.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.43

↑
52-Week Range$2432
$2010$4530

TradingView lightweight chart

4011.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,432Periodo -64.0%
Fair value: $2,432

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+35.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.6%

FCF / Net income

-1.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.90B · net income $57.7M · FCF $-61.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

44.4%+3.4% pts

Operating margin

5.9%-1.1% pts

Net margin

1.5%-3.3% pts

FCF margin

-1.6%-4.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.90B$3.90B$2.91B$2.32B$1.57B
Net Income$57.7M$57.7M$272.8M$70.7M$75.1M
EBITDA$174.4M$174.4M$382.9M$110.0M$121.4M
EPS13.8413.8465.3816.9918.63
Gross Margin44.4%44.4%42.7%36.9%41.0%
Operating Margin5.9%5.9%10.6%4.1%7.0%
Net Margin1.5%1.5%9.4%3.1%4.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.431.43———
Current Ratio0.690.69———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-61.6M$-61.6M$117.8M$71.4M$43.4M
Returns
ROE4.3%4.3%21.5%7.4%8.6%
Valuation
P/E174.21174.2190.09227.1945.56
EV/EBITDA65.4265.4261.98137.7821.45
P/B7.627.6219.4016.753.91
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth34.2%34.2%25.5%47.0%—
EPS Growth-78.8%-78.8%284.8%-8.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

149.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$215.80

Spread vs growth

-228.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

79.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$261.12

Spread vs growth

-158.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

40.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$420.53

Spread vs growth

-119.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.3%

Total return

-23.3%

Start / end P/E

48.5x → 175.7x

EPS bridge

65.38 → 13.84

Residual

-206.9%

EPS growth-78.8%
Multiple rerating+262.4%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-206.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.