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4015.T$467.00-1.27%
Fair $467.00+0.0%

4015.T

Paycloud Holdings Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$467.00

-6.00 (-1.27%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $467.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $989.9M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 39/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 3.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4015.TLocal privado en este navegador · Paycloud Holdings Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.4B

P/E

112.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.6x

↓

ROE

3.2%

↓

Gross Margin

39.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.39

↑
52-Week Range$467
$388$961

TradingView lightweight chart

4015.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $467.00Periodo -86.6%
Fair value: $467.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+106.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

10.9%

FCF / Net income

7.76x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $10.23B · net income $143.8M · FCF $1.12B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

39.1%-25.0% pts

Operating margin

7.1%+20.9% pts

Net margin

1.4%+158.8% pts

FCF margin

10.9%+45.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$10.23B$10.23B$6.85B$4.48B$1.17B
Net Income$143.8M$143.8M$74.1M$114.1M$-1.83B
EBITDA$879.4M$879.4M$703.6M$493.4M$-1.74B
EPS8.888.885.2710.48-252.06
Gross Margin39.1%39.1%43.9%51.3%64.1%
Operating Margin7.1%7.1%4.9%3.7%-13.8%
Net Margin1.4%1.4%1.1%2.5%-157.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.390.390.440.581.35
Current Ratio1.841.84———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.12B$1.12B$989.9M$430.9M$-407.6M
Returns
ROE3.2%3.2%1.8%5.3%-128.1%
Valuation
P/E112.26112.26109.1179.01—
EV/EBITDA5.645.649.5317.80—
P/B1.671.671.924.172.44
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth49.3%49.3%53.1%284.1%—
EPS Growth68.5%68.5%-49.7%104.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

67.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$41.44

Spread vs growth

1.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

41.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$50.14

Spread vs growth

27.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$80.75

Spread vs growth

43.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -34.9%

Total return

-34.9%

Start / end P/E

136.1x → 52.6x

EPS bridge

5.27 → 8.88

Residual

-42.0%

EPS growth+68.5%
Multiple rerating-61.3%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-42.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.