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4017.T$215.00-0.92%
Fair $215.00+0.0%

4017.T

Creema Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Internet RetailTokyo

$215.00

-2.00 (-0.92%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $215.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $22.2M · quality 55.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4017.TLocal privado en este navegador · Creema Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

52.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

-4.5x

↓

ROE

9.3%

↑

Gross Margin

78.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.29

↓
52-Week Range$215
$212$343

TradingView lightweight chart

4017.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $215.00Periodo -95.9%
Fair value: $215.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.0%

FCF CAGR

-58.3%

FCF margin

0.9%

FCF / Net income

0.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.51B · net income $103.0M · FCF $22.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

78.2%-18.6% pts

Operating margin

4.1%-10.0% pts

Net margin

4.1%-5.9% pts

FCF margin

0.9%-12.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.51B$2.51B$2.51B$2.50B$2.29B
Net Income$103.0M$103.0M$79.1M$-408.3M$230.7M
EBITDA$148.3M$148.3M$114.8M$-367.7M$382.7M
EPS——11.63-60.8532.60
Gross Margin78.2%78.2%79.3%76.3%96.7%
Operating Margin4.1%4.1%1.7%-15.4%14.1%
Net Margin4.1%4.1%3.2%-16.3%10.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.290.290.520.420.42
Current Ratio1.461.46———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$22.2M$22.2M$112.7M$-438.1M$305.6M
Returns
ROE9.3%9.3%7.9%-44.4%17.5%
Valuation
P/E52.7052.7025.54—26.44
EV/EBITDA-4.49-4.49-0.81—9.68
P/B1.311.312.023.814.62
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.1%-0.1%0.4%8.9%—
EPS Growth——119.1%-286.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.2%

Total return

-19.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

11.63 → n/d

Residual

-19.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.