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4019.T$615.00+6.96%
Fair $615.00+0.0%

4019.T

Stmn, Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$615.00

+40.00 (+6.96%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $615.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $180.9M · quality 56.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 4019.TLocal privado en este navegador · Stmn, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.4B

P/E

26.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.9x

↓

ROE

13.5%

↑

Gross Margin

73.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$615
$545$1519

TradingView lightweight chart

4019.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $615.00Periodo -67.0%
Fair value: $615.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+43.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.2%

FCF / Net income

-0.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.82B · net income $208.1M · FCF $-44.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

73.4%-6.1% pts

Operating margin

7.6%-2.5% pts

Net margin

5.5%-2.2% pts

FCF margin

-1.2%-3.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.82B$3.82B$2.69B$1.88B$1.30B
Net Income$208.1M$208.1M$137.3M$125.3M$99.4M
EBITDA$338.9M$338.9M$257.1M$189.1M$152.2M
EPS——15.6214.2911.42
Gross Margin73.4%73.4%77.6%77.7%79.5%
Operating Margin7.6%7.6%8.3%8.8%10.1%
Net Margin5.5%5.5%5.1%6.7%7.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.010.020.01
Current Ratio1.881.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-44.7M$-44.7M$349.5M$180.9M$24.2M
Returns
ROE13.5%13.5%10.2%10.3%9.6%
Valuation
P/E26.1526.1549.6254.5854.38
EV/EBITDA12.9412.9422.1528.9027.83
P/B3.513.515.065.635.24
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth41.8%41.8%43.3%44.4%—
EPS Growth——9.3%25.1%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -34.3%

Total return

-34.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

15.62 → n/d

Residual

-35.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-35.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.