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4072.T$2954.00-1.43%
Fair $2954.00+0.0%

4072.T

Densan System Holdings Co., Ltd.

Technology / Information Technology ServicesTokyo

$2954.00

-43.00 (-1.43%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2954.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 64/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.5B · quality 76.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 73/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

64/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4072.TLocal privado en este navegador · Densan System Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$31.7B

P/E

10.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

2.1x

↓

ROE

11.8%

↑

Gross Margin

16.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$2954
$2487$5090

TradingView lightweight chart

4072.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,954Periodo +2.9%
Fair value: $2,954

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.4%

FCF CAGR

+38.3%

FCF margin

5.2%

FCF / Net income

1.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $68.13B · net income $2.90B · FCF $3.53B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.2%-2.5% pts

Operating margin

5.3%-1.1% pts

Net margin

4.3%-0.1% pts

FCF margin

5.2%+2.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$68.13B$68.13B$61.26B$59.59B$53.48B
Net Income$2.90B$2.90B$1.85B$2.00B$2.35B
EBITDA$4.56B$4.56B$3.54B$4.01B$4.06B
EPS271.06271.06173.88187.71217.72
Gross Margin16.2%16.2%15.2%17.8%18.7%
Operating Margin5.3%5.3%3.8%6.7%6.4%
Net Margin4.3%4.3%3.0%3.4%4.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.050.070.08
Current Ratio1.381.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3.53B$3.53B$2.40B$4.68B$1.34B
Returns
ROE11.8%11.8%8.4%9.7%12.1%
Valuation
P/E10.9010.9014.4814.999.63
EV/EBITDA2.092.092.433.902.85
P/B1.281.281.211.461.16
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.2%11.2%2.8%11.4%—
EPS Growth55.9%55.9%-7.4%-13.8%—
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-1.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$262.12

Spread vs growth

57.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$317.16

Spread vs growth

52.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$510.79

Spread vs growth

49.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +21.2%

Total return

+21.2%

Start / end P/E

14.4x → 10.9x

EPS bridge

173.88 → 271.06

Residual

-13.6%

EPS growth+55.9%
Multiple rerating-24.4%
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.