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4165.T$645.00+6.79%
Fair $645.00+0.0%

4165.T

PLAID,Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$645.00

+41.00 (+6.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $645.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 61/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $842.9M · quality 50.0/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

61/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4165.TLocal privado en este navegador · PLAID,Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$26.5B

P/E

34.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.0x

↑

ROE

23.0%

↑

Gross Margin

73.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.38

↑
52-Week Range$645
$495$1309

TradingView lightweight chart

4165.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $645.00Periodo -82.4%
Fair value: $645.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+22.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

9.5%

FCF / Net income

1.16x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $13.40B · net income $1.10B · FCF $1.27B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

73.1%-0.5% pts

Operating margin

10.7%+22.8% pts

Net margin

8.2%+21.0% pts

FCF margin

9.5%+21.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$13.40B$13.40B$10.99B$8.63B$7.30B
Net Income$1.10B$1.10B$320.7M$-2.11B$-930.8M
EBITDA$1.45B$1.45B$142.9M$-1.88B$-780.0M
EPS26.6326.637.85-53.92-24.30
Gross Margin73.1%73.1%71.6%72.2%73.6%
Operating Margin10.7%10.7%2.4%-10.2%-12.1%
Net Margin8.2%8.2%2.9%-24.4%-12.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.380.380.420.530.45
Current Ratio2.642.64———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.27B$1.27B$842.9M$-371.8M$-883.6M
Returns
ROE23.0%23.0%10.2%-81.1%-22.9%
Valuation
P/E34.6834.68114.14——
EV/EBITDA15.0515.05232.15——
P/B5.565.5611.6310.245.83
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth21.9%21.9%27.3%18.3%—
EPS Growth239.2%239.2%114.6%-121.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

29.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$57.23

Spread vs growth

210.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

21.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$69.25

Spread vs growth

218.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$111.53

Spread vs growth

223.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -37.0%

Total return

-37.0%

Start / end P/E

130.4x → 24.2x

EPS bridge

7.85 → 26.63

Residual

-194.8%

EPS growth+239.2%
Multiple rerating-81.4%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-194.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.